Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 30.492163 33.481308 36.867269 41.041047 46.127295 52.236645 60.316380
2025-10-05 27.453240 31.551182 36.612766 43.540211 53.169344 66.812155 89.331044
2025-10-12 24.746790 29.132480 34.810556 43.069481 55.546309 75.411736 114.813659
2025-10-19 23.104902 27.730085 33.954090 43.492856 59.041495 86.855975 155.165505
2025-10-26 22.125106 27.029860 33.873229 44.909867 64.372714 104.119507 235.217610
2025-11-02 21.007221 25.991495 33.130646 45.093741 67.547270 119.000480 353.995345
2025-11-09 19.645648 24.476070 31.495951 43.516999 66.921298 124.596871 465.430791
2025-11-16 18.466101 23.130393 29.985911 41.928621 65.881957 128.688834 615.023924
2025-11-23 17.971138 22.739471 29.900168 42.796351 70.250472 152.548996 1738.176657
2025-11-30 17.327109 22.077022 29.316776 42.665252 72.353650 171.473575 21174.196981
2025-12-07 16.667845 21.348070 28.562320 42.106540 73.294265 187.474128 NaN
2025-12-14 15.777160 20.221955 27.084077 40.000040 69.888953 180.824609 NaN
2025-12-21 15.088900 19.478319 26.360937 39.649024 71.993896 211.289278 NaN
2025-12-28 14.882711 19.476809 26.900567 41.980218 82.838914 341.644919 NaN
2026-01-04 14.272655 18.788125 26.180564 41.540133 85.320436 435.171061 NaN
2026-01-11 13.846867 18.360779 25.872338 41.937129 90.935381 672.776578 NaN
2026-01-18 13.583544 18.173637 25.968555 43.264902 101.082360 1739.080587 NaN
2026-01-25 13.197511 17.757750 25.603216 43.437042 106.972192 7891.207701 NaN
2026-02-01 12.649531 17.043155 24.625184 41.959778 104.691956 20131.243462 NaN
2026-02-08 12.139952 16.370354 23.684856 40.468988 101.821407 93932.958157 NaN
2026-02-15 11.930321 16.188949 23.659777 41.283734 110.976154 NaN NaN
2026-02-22 11.633076 15.843596 23.293269 41.160691 115.393378 NaN NaN
2026-03-01 11.314345 15.447088 22.800838 40.636107 117.326797 NaN NaN